As a new year begins, it is useful for forecasters to take a backward glance at their projections about economic developments and prospects and compare those projections to the most recent data and indicators. Last year proved to be a tricky one for economic analysts around the world, and some of the forecasts published early in the year have turned out well wide of the mark, as is discussed in a recent article in The Economist.
At ÍSB Research, we spent a fair amount of last year preparing forecasts, as is our custom. We published three macroeconomic forecasts: in early February, late May, and late September. In addition, we issued monthly inflation forecasts and published policy rate forecasts about a week before each Central Bank (CBI) decision date.