Foreign nationals’ departures via Keflavík Airport fell significantly between years in November. According to newly published figures from the Icelandic Tourist Board, 141,000 foreign nationals departed from the airport in November, a decline of 13% year-on-year. Such a sharp contraction has not been seen in monthly figures since March 2025, when the YoY comparison was probably skewed by the timing of the Easter holidays. November marks the second monthly downturn in a row, as tourist departures fell by slightly over 6% in October.
Winter chill hits tourism
The outlook is for tourist arrivals to decline markedly in Q4, after quite a respectable peak season. Prospects for 2026 have dimmed noticeably, and visitor numbers may fall relative to this year.
The main difference this November lay in the number of visitors from the US (down nearly 16% YoY) and the US (down almost a third). The number of Chinese nationals visiting Iceland jumped by 57% YoY, however. US nationals accounted for just over one-fifth of all foreign departures, followed by travellers from the UK (17%), China (6.5%), Germany (5.1%), and Italy (4.7%).
In 2025 to date, just over 2.1 million foreign nationals have departed from Iceland via Keflavík Airport, an increase of 0.7% between years.
Revenues flat despite increase in peak season visitor numbers
Despite a YoY increase of just over 7% in the number of tourist arrivals in Q3, revenues from travel and passenger transport by air were all but flat between the two periods. Presumably, this is due to reduced revenue from transit passengers who touched down briefly in Iceland before continuing across the Atlantic. According to Icelandair’s Q3 earnings report, for example, its transit passengers – those travelling between North America and Europe – declined in number by 11% YoY during the quarter. At the same time, Icelandair saw a YoY increase in both the number of arriving passengers whose final destination was Iceland and the number of departing passengers whose flights originated in Iceland.
Over this same period, however, Icelanders’ overseas trips increased by nearly 11%, as can be seen in stronger spending during travels abroad. In all, services imports relating to passenger transport and travel grew just over 10% YoY in ISK terms in Q3. As a result, the surplus on this portion of the services account narrowed between years, although it still measured ISK 162bn in Q3/2025. As before, it accounted for most of the ISK 137bn services account surplus for the period, according to figures from Statistics Iceland (SI).
Setback after a robust peak season
After a brisk high season, tourism sector activity has tapered off as the autumn has advanced. As the chart indicates, several short-term indicators have shown the same trend recently, including turnover with foreign payment cards, overnight stays, and departures via Keflavík Airport. All of these indicate a marked slowdown in YoY growth as the days grow shorter.
The Central Bank’s (CBI) most recent Monetary Bulletin contains an interesting chart depicting possible developments in Q4. It indicates a YoY decline in planned total flights to and from Iceland, as well as in accommodation bookings made with online booking agencies. Google search data suggest that interest in trips to the country has skyrocketed, however – presumably because of the solar eclipse that will be visible from Iceland next August.
Will visitor numbers decline in 2026?
Earlier this autumn, we discussed the uncertainties looming ahead for many of Iceland’s key export sectors. Among the points we covered were heightened tourism industry concerns about winter season bookings and uncertain prospects for 2026 as a whole.
According to recent forecasts and analyses, visitor numbers will either hold broadly unchanged or decline somewhat next year. For instance, a newly released forecast from Isavia assumes that passengers travelling through Keflavík Airport will fall in number by 7% YoY in 2026. This downturn stems largely from projections of fewer transit passengers and fewer overseas trips taken by Icelanders. Isavia forecasts that foreign passenger arrivals will decline by just over 1% in 2026. The Icelandic Tourist Board’s AI-generated forecast is more pessimistic, with foreign nationals’ trips to Iceland declining by just under 3% in 2026. Similarly, the scenario we prepared earlier this autumn assumed a 3% decline in visitor numbers as part of our analysis of the potential impact of export shocks on economic developments. We now consider such an outcome for 2026 more likely than the 3.6% increase we projected this autumn. In the new issue of Monetary Bulletin. the CBI forecasts that tourism activity will pick up slightly in 2026; however, the bank has now lowered its previous forecast of revenues from passenger transport, as well as its projection of overall tourist numbers for the year.
Tourist numbers peaked in 2018, when just over 2.3 million foreign nationals departed via Keflavík Airport. It looks increasingly likely that this record will stand unbroken for a while yet. This should come as a relief to those most concerned about the strain tourism places on domestic infrastructure and the housing market, but it will hardly portend well for Iceland’s export revenues and output growth.
