We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in May.Based on this forecast, headline inflation will measure 3.6%, up from 3.3% in April. The medium-term inflation outlook has improved marginally since the last forecast, owing to a more favourable outlook for wage developments in 2019 and the prospect of weaker-than-expected house price inflation in coming quarters. Inflation appears set to average 3.4% in Q2/2019 and taper off thereafter. We expect it to measure 2.8% at year-end 2019 and 2.7% at year-end 2020.
We forecast a 0.2% increase in the CPI in May
We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in May. Based on this forecast, headline inflation will measure 3.6%, up from 3.3% in April.
Summary
We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in May
Headline inflation will rise to 3.6%
Petrol, food, housewares among upward-pushing items
Marginal rise in imputed rent
Airfares fall somewhat
Slight improvement in inflation outlook
Inflation 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020
