The US accounted for nearly a third of departures and, as before, represented the largest nationality group by far, notwithstanding a slight decline between years. Chinese tourists ranked #2 (8%), and their number grew by nearly a third YoY. Just behind them were tourists from Canada (6.5%), up 2/3 YoY; Germany (6.3%); and the UK (5.5%).

Interestingly, YoY changes in tourist numbers differed by country of origin. Americans remain the largest group, buoyed up by the strong US labour market and robust purchasing power. Furthermore, the number of visitors from China and Canada has surged. On the other hand, the number of tourists from some European countries has grown more modestly or has even contracted, to some extent reflecting weaker GDP growth in Europe in the recent past, plus the fact that Iceland continues to be an expensive destination.

In the first three quarters of the year, foreign passengers travelling through Keflavík Airport fell in number by 0.8%. This is in line with our recently published macroeconomic forecast, in which we projected a decline of 0.6% between 2025 and 2026.

Overnight stays hold their own during the peak season

Even though the number of foreign nationals travelling through Keflavík Airport during the peak season (June-August) tapered slightly, other indicators suggest that tourism-generated revenues grew somewhat between years. Overnight stays at registered accommodations were up 3% YoY over the same three-month period, according to figures from Statistics Iceland (SI), and turnover with foreign payment cards grew by more than 7% YoY at constant exchange rates. Thus it appears that each tourist stayed a bit longer and spent somewhat more in Iceland this summer than in the summer of 2025.

Furthermore, the composition of overnight stays seems to have changed. The hotel sector seems overall to have held its ground better than some other types of accommodation. Furthermore, the figures suggest that growth is now linked more to specific regions and seasons than to a general increase throughout the year.

This in and of itself is not cause for concern. After more than a decade of virtually uninterrupted growth in tourist numbers, it is natural that the sector should settle into a more moderate growth phase. But it also means that the contribution of tourism to export growth will be far smaller in coming years than during the pre-pandemic period.

Mixed developments in goods exports

Goods exports have developed differently from sector to sector this year. SI’s newest goods trade figures suggest that export values held up well for marine products but were weaker for metals and other manufactured goods.

The marine product sector is supported by capelin exports. After several difficult years, a bountiful season has generated handsome export values and given the sector a real shot in the arm. Furthermore, aquaculture has continued to grow rapidly and is becoming an ever more important contributor to Iceland’s exports. Although demersal catches and exports of certain traditional marine products have been under pressure, capelin and aquaculture have put wind back in the industry’s sails. Furthermore, the price of various demersals has been relatively high, particularly the price of cod.

The metals manufacturing industry has had some difficulty, however. The disruptions in production that started in 2025 are still affecting aluminium exports. On the other hand, the most recent information indicates that output is back to normal and that the adverse impact of the production bottlenecks is diminishing. At the same time, aluminium prices have retreated from their summertime peak, although they remain high in historical context.

On the whole, then, it can be said that the contraction in some of Iceland’s largest traditional export sectors has largely been offset by strong growth elsewhere. This underscores how much more diverse Iceland’s exports are now than in previous decades.

Growth shifting increasingly to services exports

Examining the outlook for exports in the next few years, as we have done in our most recent macroeconomic forecast, shows this trend clearly. Tourism has remained solid in recent years despite growing challenges, and figures on departures from Keflavík Airport show that tourist numbers increased slightly in both 2024 and 2025. The outlook is for a marginal contraction in 2026, however, as is noted above. The first three quarters of 2026 saw a slight YoY decline in the number of departure passengers, as well as a considerable reduction in the number of transit passengers.

Even though the tourism industry has relaxed its pace a bit, exports as a whole are expected to keep growing, with the intellectual property sector playing a key role. Exports of goods and services falling within the sector totalled ISK 369bn in 2025 and have more than doubled since the start of the decade.

Particularly noticeable is the rapid-fire growth in ICT services. Revenues from the ICT sector totalled ISK 129bn from mid-2025 through mid-2026, an increase of 65% YoY. Data centre development plays the starring role in the surge, while other intellectual property companies have shown significant gains in export revenue generation.

The outlook is for a continuation of this trend in the years ahead. Increased data centre activity, continued growth in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and medical products, a stronger contribution from aquaculture, and the rebound in aluminium manufacturing should support exports. At the same time, the outlook is for modest growth in tourism.

Export growth measured 1.5% in 2025, and we expect it to pick up in 2026 and gain further momentum in 2027 and 2028. The most important change, however, is not in the pace of growth but in its composition. As tourism eases towards a more subdued growth phase alongside the metals and fishing industries, new pillars of exports are taking on more prominent roles. This makes the Icelandic economy both more diverse and more resilient against volatility in individual sectors.