Statistics Iceland (SI) had already published data on the two largest components of the current account: goods trade and services trade. The deficit on goods came to nearly ISK 102bn in Q3, after growing by a third year-on-year, not least because of a surge in imports of investment goods.

Tourism delivers the usual surplus on services trade

As is typical for Q3, the peak tourism season generated a sizeable surplus on services trade this year. The services account surplus totalled just over ISK 137bn, according to CBI figures, and grew by nearly ISK 6bn YoY. Actually, the surplus relating to cross-border travel shrank between years, owing to Icelanders’ brisk travel activity in summer 2024. At the same time, revenues generated by foreign tourists grew very little, despite an increase in the number of visitors to Iceland.

Data centres generate growing export revenues

It is also worth noting that SI now publishes a more detailed breakdown than before of the item “Telecoms, computer, and information services” in its summary table for the services account. It is useful to examine developments in the item “Other computer services”, under which domestic data centres’ export revenues are itemised. Thus far in 2025, such revenues total just over ISK 28bn, up from ISK 10bn in the first three quarters of 2018, the first year included with the new itemisation. Export revenues from data centres and related activities have therefore nearly trebled in seven years, and in the first nine months of 2025 they accounted for just under 2% of total export revenues.

The primary income account showed a surplus of just over ISK 6bn in Q3, while secondary income showed a deficit of slightly more than ISK 15bn during the period. Secondary income always generates a deficit, partly because it includes contributions to international institutions and charities, as well as monetary remittances sent by immigrants to relatives abroad. On the other hand, the primary income account has fluctuated between surplus and deficit in recent quarters, partly because it is affected by domestic aluminium smelters’ operating performance.

The CBI also makes note of an unusually large revenue item in the capital account, to the tune of ISK 161bn, stemming from an Icelandic biotech firm’s sale of intellectual property to a foreign entity. Presumably, the transaction in question is the transfer of intellectual property rights from Kerecis to its parent company, Coloplast, which in news reports early this year was estimated at roughly USD 1,300m.

Sizeable current account deficit in 2025 …

The current account deficit for the first three quarters of 2025 totalled 140 b.kr., as compared with a deficit of ISK 128bn for 2024 as a whole. Because the outlook is for a hefty deficit in Q4, it appears quite clear that the current account will show a far larger deficit in 2025 than in 2024. In our macroeconomic forecast from September, we projected that this year’s current account deficit would measure approximately ISK 90bn. It now looks set to be quite a bit larger than this. Nevertheless, the outlook is for the deficit to narrow steadily in the coming term, even though bleak prospects for exports have made it more uncertain how quickly this will happen.

… coupled with growth in net external assets

The CBI has also published data recently on Iceland’s external position as of end-September. At that time, the bank estimated the net external position at ISK 2,101bn, which translates to just over 43% of GDP. The NIIP improved by ISK 252bn during the quarter, mainly because of a reduction in liabilities in the amount of ISK 149bn. At the same time, external assets increased by ISK 66bn and price and exchange rate movements caused the NIIP to improve by ISK 40bn. The NIIP has been positive for the past decade, after having been consistently negative before that time, with the associated adverse impact on the stability of the ISK.