According to recently published figures from the Icelandic Tourist Board, about 119,000 foreign nationals departed Iceland via Keflavík Airport in January. This equates to a decline of just under 2% relative to January 2025, although it should be borne in mind that visitor numbers were down sharply in the first few months of 2025. In January 2025, for instance, tourist numbers declined by almost 6% year-on-year. In our assessment, though, the outcome is somewhat more favourable than could have been expected, given the early-2026 indicators suggesting a bleak year ahead for Icelandic tourism.
Challenging year ahead for tourism
Tourism activity has been a bit brisker than expected thus far in 2026, even though visitor numbers are down. The outlook for this year is for a modest contraction in the sector, followed by a period of subdued growth.
Fewer Americans, more Brits
It is interesting to examine the nationality breakdown of tourists who visit Iceland. As in the recent past, Americans were the largest nationality group to visit Iceland in January. Just over a fifth of all departing passengers during the month were from the US, yet US traveller numbers declined by more than a fourth between years.
Visitors from the UK ranked second, with nearly 18% of the total, but unlike their American counterparts, British visitors increased in number by 12% year-on-year. Chinese tourists placed third in terms of raw numbers (7.5% of the total), despite a slight decline between years. Italian tourists made their mark this year, ranking fourth with 6.3% of the total and trebling between years in January arrivals to Iceland, followed by German (5.6%) and French (4.9%) visitors.
The Americans and the British have long been the two largest nationality groups to visit Iceland. In 2025, for instance, Americans accounted for over 29% of departures from Keflavík Airport, with British nationals representing another tenth. These two nationality groups’ travel habits vary greatly by season, however, as the chart above indicates. Tourists from the US adhered to their usual seasonal pattern, visiting Iceland in greatest numbers during the peak season. The reverse can be said about the British, who tend to visit Iceland in winter, thereby creating a valuable counterweight to the usual seasonal flows.
Given the importance of this counterweight, the decline in UK visitors over the past two years has given cause for concern. In 2025, for example, the number of UK nationals visiting Iceland was down 20% since 2023. By the same token, it is reassuring to see a strong upturn in British visitor numbers in January 2026, although it is naturally too soon to draw sweeping conclusions on whether the upturn represents a true turnaround in UK nationals’ visits to Iceland.
Chinese, Italian, and Spanish visitors have increased in number
Chinese nationals have accounted for a steadily increasing share of visitors to Iceland in recent years, after having been all but invisible during the pandemic. In 2025, 124,000 Chinese visitors came to Iceland, accounting for 5.5% of total departures via Keflavík Airport and setting a single-year record. A similar tale can be told of Italian and Spanish visitors. In 2025, 86,000 Italians (3.8% of the total) and nearly 76,000 Spaniards (3.4%) departed Iceland via the airport.
The shift among Italian tourists is especially interesting. Although the number of Italian visitors subsided from the 2024 peak, there were twice as many Italian tourists in Iceland in 2025 as in the overall tourist record year of 2018. Among tourists from Continental Europe, however, German and French visitors are most numerous, at 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively, of the total.
Outlook cloudy for this year’s non-peak tourist season
As we have mentioned in our recently published macroeconomic forecast, there are short-term concerns on the horizon for the tourism industry. The forecast explains that for tourism, 2025 started with a fairly disappointing first four months but then rebounded during the high season, with a surge in arrivals over the summer. In the final months of the year, however, visitor numbers contracted significantly, however. Foreign nationals’ departures via Keflavík Airport were down more than 10% YoY in Q4/2025, and for the year as a whole, foreign nationals’ departures via Keflavík Airport were broadly flat relative to 2024.
The outlook is for a contraction in the sector in 2026. Estimated flight offerings and bookings with hotels and other service providers indicate that tourist numbers will be down YoY until the spring. Prospects for the peak season are better, however, and we expect visitor numbers to hold virtually unchanged YoY in June through September. We expect visitor numbers to decline by nearly 4% YoY in 2026 as a whole. Thereafter, we expect modest growth in 2027-2028. If our projections materialise, the 2018 tourist record will stand unbroken during the forecast horizon.
Given January’s Icelandic Tourist Board data, we look forward to seeing tourist numbers for the months ahead. As is noted above, those figures were more favourable than we had dared hope after the contraction in late 2025 and the signs of a sluggish start to 2026. We hope that such a favourable outcome will materialise in the near future as well.
