Forecasts

We strive to identify strategic concerns, trends, and relevant financial information and through meticulous analyses transform this into comprehensive research and clear investment opinions for our clients.

06.12.2018 14:28

We forecast a 0.5% CPI rise in December

​We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in December, raising headline inflation from 3.3% to 3.5%.
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15.11.2018 16:08

Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.3% in November

​We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in November, raising headline inflation from 2.8% to 3.3%.
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02.11.2018 15:56

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 7 November

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold the policy rate unchanged on 7 November, the next interest rate decision date. The bank’s key rate will therefore remain 4.25%.
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25.10.2018 11:03

Macroeconomic forecast 2018-2020

We expect GDP growth to measure 3.4% this year and 1.5% in 2019. The outlook is for growth to pick up again in 2020, rising to about 2.8%.
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16.10.2018 14:17

CPI to rise 0.5% in October

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in October, If this forecast materialises, headline inflation will rise from 2.7% to 2.8%.
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13.09.2018 11:22

CPI to rise 0.3% in September

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in September, raising headline inflation from 2.6% to 2.8%.
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17.08.2018 14:44

Our forecast: Unchanged policy rate on 29 August

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold the policy rate unchanged on 29 August, the next interest rate decision date.
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14.08.2018 13:14

Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.4% in August

If this forecast materialises, headline inflation will rise from 2.7% to 2.8%.
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24.07.2018 09:42

CPI up 0.04% in July

Headline inflation turned out higher than we had expected this month, owing mainly to a persistent rise in house prices, particularly in regional Iceland. Other domestic and foreign inflationary pressures have also gained strength in the recent past, however. The outlook is for inflation to remain roughly at the current level in the months to come.
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11.07.2018 13:38

CPI to decline 0,2% in July

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.2% month-on-month in July
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13.06.2018 12:10

Airfares and housing the main drivers of inflation in June

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3 month-on-month in June
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24.05.2018 15:50

Updated macroeconomic forecast 2018-2020

We project output growth at 2.6% this year, 2.4% in 2019, and 2.6% again in 2020. The pace of growth will be close to potential, and the output gap will narrow steadily.
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11.05.2018 15:18

We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in May

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% month-on-month in May. Based on this forecast, headline inflation will measure 2.3% like it did in April.
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08.05.2018 14:34

Policy rate unchanged for the time being

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 16 May
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12.04.2018 16:32

CPI to rise 0.1% in April

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.1% month-on-month in April.
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07.03.2018 15:59

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 14 March

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 14 March, the next interest rate announcement date.
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09.02.2018 15:04

Our forecast: 0.6% rise in CPI in February

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.6% month-on-month in February, lowering headline inflation from 2.4% to 2.2%.
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02.02.2018 10:30

Year begins with unchanged policy rate

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 7 February, the next interest rate announcement date.
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01.02.2018 14:43

Prepare for landing: Updated macroeconomic forecast 2017-2019

We estimate year-2017 growth at 4.1% and project a growth rate of 2.3% in both 2018 and 2019.
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12.01.2018 15:53

CPI to decline 0.6% in January

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.6% month-on-month in January, lowering headline inflation from 1.9% to 1.8%.
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12.12.2017 10:58

Unchanged policy rate for the holiday season

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 13 December, the next interest rate announcement date.
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07.12.2017 13:29

CPI to rise 0.5% in December

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in December, raising headline inflation from 1.7% to 2.1%.
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14.11.2017 15:41

We forecast an unchanged CPI in November

We forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) will remain unchanged month-on-month in November, leaving headline inflation unchanged as well, at 1.9%.
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08.11.2017 10:20

Unchanged policy rate on 15 November?

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 15 November, the next announcement date.
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13.10.2017 13:30

CPI to rise 0.3% in October

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in October, raising headline inflation from 1.4% to 1.7%.
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02.10.2017 16:58

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 4 October

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 4 October, the next announcement date.
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29.09.2017 14:04

Preparing to land: Macroeconomic forecast 2017-2019

The outlook is for growth to remain robust this year and then ease steadily. We project it at 4.5% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018, and 2.3% in 2019.
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14.09.2017 13:45

We project a 0.5% rise in the CPI in September

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in September, raising headline inflation from 1.7% to 1.8%.
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18.08.2017 13:30

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 23 August

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 23 August, the next announcement date.
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16.08.2017 15:43

We forecast a 0.4% CPI rise in August

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.4% month-on-month in August. If this forecast materialises, headline inflation will rise from 1.8% to 1.9%.
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16.06.2017 14:25

We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in June

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2 month-on-month in June, leaving headline inflation unchanged at 1.7%.
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17.05.2017 14:19

Policy rate lowered, neutral forward guidance

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided today to lower the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. Most analysts expected a rate cut, although forecasts ranged between no change (including our own) and a 0.25-point rate cut.
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12.05.2017 16:02

We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in May

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.4% month-on-month in May, leaving headline inflation unchanged at 1.9%.
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10.05.2017 12:50

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 17 May

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 17 May, its next decision date.
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11.04.2017 15:26

We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in April

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.4% month-on-month in April.
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05.04.2017 13:19

Tourism booming worldwide

Tourism has been one of the world’s fastest-growing sectors in recent decades. The number of destinations available to travellers is rising continually. The tourism industry has created jobs, generated foreign exchange revenues, and underpinned strong GDP growth and societal development in many countries. Globally, tourism accounts for 10% of GDP, 7% of foreign exchange revenues from goods and services exports, and one of every eleven jobs.
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15.03.2017 14:15

Policy rate unchanged – in line with our forecast

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, in line with our forecast. Official forecasts ranged from no change to a 0.25 percentage point rate cut. The Committee’s rationale for its decision to keep rates unchanged is broadly as we expected: stronger-than-anticipated GDP growth, signs of continued rapid growth in demand in 2017, and uncertainty about near-term exchange rate developments in the wake of capital account liberalisation, on the one hand, and reduced uncertainty in the labour market together with the appreciation of the ISK since the MPC’s last rate-setting meeting, on the other. ​
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14.03.2017 13:56

We forecast a 0.2% rise in the CPI in March

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% month-on-month in March.
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13.03.2017 13:34

FX market reacts strongly to removal of capital controls

As of noon today, the ISK exchange rate has fallen by 2.9% against the euro and the US dollar and 3.4% against the pound sterling. The drop is due largely to the Government’s announcement yesterday that the restrictions in the Foreign Exchange Act imposing controls on households’ and businesses’ foreign exchange market transactions, foreign investments, hedging activities, and borrowing and lending activities are to be lifted in full. Furthermore, resident entities will no longer be required to repatriate foreign currency.
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10.03.2017 13:41

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 15 March

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 15 March
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10.02.2017 15:16

Forecast a 0.7% rise in CPI in February

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.7% month-on-month in February, leaving headline inflation unchanged at 1.9% and heralding the start of the fourth consecutive year of below-target inflation.
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08.02.2017 13:35

Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts

The MPC decided to keep the Central Bank (CBI) policy rate unchanged, in line with our projections and those of other official policy rate forecasters. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 5.0%.
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02.02.2017 13:47

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 8 February

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 8 February, its next decision date. The grounds for the decision will presumably be that even though inflation and inflation expectations are still at target, strong demand growth, the recent depreciation of the ISK and strong demand growth call for an unchanged policy rate. ​
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13.01.2017 15:25

CPI to decline 0.6% in January

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.6% month-on-month in January, leaving headline inflation unchanged at 1.9%.
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14.12.2016 14:26

Policy rate cut — in the face of most forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) took the market by surprise this morning when it announced its decision to lower the CBI’s policy rate by 0.25 percentage points.
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09.12.2016 15:36

CPI to rise 0.5% in December

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in December, raising twelve-month inflation from 2.1% to 2.3% if our forecast materialises.
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09.12.2016 12:22

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 14 December

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 14 December, its next decision date.
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07.12.2016 13:25

Robust GDP growth in 9M/2016

GDP growth measured a hefty 6.2% in the first nine months of the year. This is the strongest growth rate yet measured in the current upswing, according to figures published by Statistics Iceland (SI) this morning. It is also the strongest growth rate measured in any EEA country during this period.
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15.11.2016 12:40

We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in November

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.2% month-on-month in November, raising twelve-month inflation from 1.8% to 1.9% if our forecast materialises.
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11.11.2016 11:54

0.25% interest rate cut expected on 16 November

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to lower the bank’s policy rate by 0.25 percentage points on 16 November, its next decision date.
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08.11.2016 08:44

An upswing in the housing market

We expect house prices to increase by 9.3% this year, 11.4% in 2017, and 6.6% in 2018. We also expect real house prices to increase by 7.8% this year, 9.7% in 2017, and 3.4% in 2018.
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14.10.2016 14:06

CPI projected to rise 0.1% in October

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.1% month-on-month in October, raising twelve-month inflation from 1.8% to 1.9% if our forecast materialises.
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05.10.2016 12:21

Policy rate unchanged – in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, announced today, was in line with our projections and those of most other official policy rate forecasters. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 5.25%.
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28.09.2016 14:45

Macroeconomic forecast - September 2016

We forecast relatively robust GDP growth for Iceland in 2016 and 2017, or 4.9% and 5.1%, respectively – a stronger growth rate than has been measured in Iceland since 2007.
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09.09.2016 12:26

GDP growth robust but slightly below forecasts

GDP grew by 4.1% year-on-year in the first six months of 2016. This is noticeably below projections for the year as a whole, as the Central Bank’s (CBI) most recent forecast provides for 4.9% growth, and our own forecast, from June, provides for 5.4%.
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24.08.2016 14:53

Policy rate cut in defiance of forecasts

The Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided today to lower the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points, surprising us and other forecasters who had expected an unchanged CBI interest rate. According to this morning’s MPC statement, “[i]n spite of large pay increases and a wider positive output gap, inflation has remained below target for two-and-a-half years.” Furthermore, the MPC noted that the inflation outlook has improved since the CBI’s last forecast, and if the exchange rate remains unchanged, the outlook is for inflation to remain below target until early 2017.
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15.08.2016 09:11

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 24 August

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 24 August,
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12.08.2016 15:45

Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.2% in August

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% month-on-month in August.
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15.06.2016 15:10

We expect the CPI to rise 0.5% in June

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in June, thereby raising headline inflation from 1.7% to 2.0%, which is still below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target.
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03.06.2016 09:41

Economic outlook 2016-2018

The GDP growth episode currently underway stands out in many respects from its predecessors. If our forecast materialises, it will be the longest period of continuous positive GDP growth per capita in over 70 years. It will also be the longest period with an external trade surplus over the same length of time and one of the longest periods of price stability.
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13.05.2016 14:06

CPI projected to rise 0.3% in May

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in May, thereby remaining unchanged at 1.6%, well below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target.
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11.05.2016 13:26

Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy rate unchanged today, in line with our forecast and others. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 5.75%.
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04.05.2016 13:17

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 11 May

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 11 May, its next decision date.
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15.04.2016 15:07

We forecast a 0.4% rise in the CPI in April

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.4% month-on-month in April, raising headline inflation from 1.5% to 1.8%.
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14.03.2016 14:22

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 16 March

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 16 March, its next decision date.
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11.03.2016 12:50

CPI to rise 0.6% in March

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.6% month-on-month in March, lowering headline inflation from 2.2% to 1.7%, as the CPI rose a full 1.0% in March 2015.
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25.02.2016 14:43

CPI rise outpaces forecasts

According to figures released recently by Statistics Iceland (SI), the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.68% month-on-month in February, and headline inflation now measures 2.2%, up from 2.1% in January. The CPI excluding housing rose by 0.69% during the month, and twelve-month inflation thus measured was 0.7%.
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12.02.2016 16:15

CPI to rise 0.5% in February

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in February.
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10.02.2016 12:12

Policy rate unchanged, in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with our forecast and others.
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29.01.2016 13:53

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 10 February

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 10 February, its next decision date. Presumably, the Committee’s rationale for an unchanged policy rate will be that inflation is below the CBI’s inflation target and that, according to the bank’s new forecast, to be published concurrent with the interest rate decision, the outlook is for inflation to rise somewhat more slowly than was assumed in the previous CBI forecast, issued last November. ​
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15.01.2016 14:56

We forecast a 0.7% drop in the CPI in January

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.7% month-on-month in January.
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11.12.2015 14:52

We forecast a 0.3% rise in the CPI in December

We project that the CPI will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in December. If the forecast materialises, headline inflation will hold unchanged at 2.0% in December, therefore remaining below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target.
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09.12.2015 12:59

Policy rate unchanged – in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, in line with our forecast. The main rationale for the decision is the short-term inflation outlook, which has improved since the November forecast. In addition, a stronger króna and more favourable global price developments have provided the scope to raise interest rates more slowly than was previously considered necessary.
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04.12.2015 14:42

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 9 December

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to keep the bank’s policy rate unchanged on 9 December, its next decision date. We expect the Committee to base its decision on both the current situation, with inflation still below the CBI’s inflation target – particularly in terms of the CPI excluding housing – and the outlook for a slower rise in inflation than was assumed in the bank’s most recent forecast. A stronger króna and global price developments have provided the scope to raise interest rates a bit more slowly than was previously considered necessary.
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13.11.2015 14:12

We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in November

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.2 % month-on-month in November.
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28.10.2015 14:26

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 4 November

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold the policy rate unchanged on 4 November, the next announcement date, citing the marked improvement in the near-term inflation outlook and the scope available to respond to growing domestic inflationary pressures once the magnitude of those pressures has grown clearer.
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19.10.2015 10:56

CPI projected to rise 0.1% in October

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in October.
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16.10.2015 11:06

Macroeconomic forecast: Icelandic economy at a turning point

The Icelandic economy is at a turning point. Following a pronounced slack, signs of tension are surfacing in certain parts of the economy. In historical context, GDP growth has been relatively modest during the current upswing. We expect this to change this year, and we anticipate considerably stronger growth than has been seen thus far in the current upward cycle.
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30.09.2015 13:25

Policy rate unchanged, as forecast

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, announced today, was in line with our projections and those of other official forecasters. As regards future rate hikes, the tone in today’s statement was somewhat milder than in the MPC’s August statement.
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24.09.2015 13:09

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 30 September

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 30 September, the next announcement date. In our opinion, the Committee will support its decision by citing the marked improvement in the inflation outlook since the last meeting, owing to the appreciation of the ISK and other factors. Offsetting this, however, are robust output growth, substantial underlying cost price inflation, and a more relaxed fiscal stance in 2016 than in 2015, according to the budget proposal for next year. Our forecast is in accordance with the forward guidance found in the MPC’s last statement and the minutes from its last meeting. Two rate-setting dates remain after the September meeting, and we do not expect the MPC to decide to raise rates further on those occasions.
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11.09.2015 10:05

CPI to fall 0.1% in September

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.1% month-on-month in September.
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27.08.2015 15:12

Highest inflation in a year

Inflation now measures 2.2% in Iceland, the highest level seen since August 2014. That notwithstanding, inflation is below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target, as it has been for the past 19 months straight. The outlook is for a steady increase over the next few months and an inflation rate well above the target by the year-end.
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19.08.2015 14:10

Policy rate hike in line with forecasts

Today’s decision by the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) to raise the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points was in line with our forecast and the forecasts published by other domestic market analysts. As grounds for the rate hike, the MPC cited the deterioration in the inflation outlook since the CBI’s May forecast, which is due to negotiated wage rises in excess of that forecast. The CBI also expects the output gap to widen in the coming term. The bank’s key interest rate (the rate on seven-day term deposits) is now 5.5% and has risen by a percentage point since the beginning of June.
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14.08.2015 16:28

Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.5% in August

We forecast that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.5% month-on-month in August.
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12.08.2015 09:34

We forecast a 0.5-point policy rate hike on 19 August

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to raise the CBI’s policy interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 19 August, citing a poorer inflation outlook, large domestic wage rises, and growing tension in the economy.
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10.07.2015 13:42

We expect the CPI to rise 0.1% in July

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in July. If this forecast materialises, inflation will rise from 1.5% to 1.8%, thereby remaining somewhat below the Central Bank’s (CBI) inflation target.
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12.06.2015 16:09

CPI projected to rise 0.3% in May

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in May. If this forecast materialises, inflation will rise from 1.4% to 1.6%, thereby remaining quite a bit below the Central Bank’s (CBI) inflation target.
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10.06.2015 13:00

Interest rate hike in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to raise the CBI's policy interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, announced this morning, took no one by surprise; indeed, all official forecasts had projected a rate hike of this amount. As expected, the MPC cited the outlook for wage developments, rising inflation expectations, and signs of robust domestic demand growth as grounds for the increase.
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04.06.2015 12:54

We forecast a policy rate increase on 10 June

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to raise the CBI’s policy interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 10 June, citing a poorer inflation outlook, large domestic wage rises, increased inflation expectations, growing tension in the economy, and an increasingly accommodative monetary stance.
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15.05.2015 13:50

Deteriorating inflation outlook

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in May. If this forecast materialises, inflation will rise from 1.4% to 1.6%, thereby remaining quite a bit below the Central Bank’s (CBI) inflation target.
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08.05.2015 14:03

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 13 May

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 13 May, the next announcement date,
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17.04.2015 13:37

Continued sharp rise in house prices

House prices have shot up in the recent term. According to figures from Statistics Iceland (SI), prices nationwide have risen by 9.4% in nominal terms and 7.7% in real terms over the past twelve months.
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10.04.2015 14:39

We forecast a 0.1% rise in the CPI in April

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in April. If this forecast materialises, inflation will decline from 1.6% to 1.4%, thereby remaining well below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target.
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18.03.2015 13:40

Policy rate unchanged, as forecasted

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, in line with our forecast and others.
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13.03.2015 14:24

OUR FORECAST: CPI to rise 0.9% in March

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.9% month-on-month in March.
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12.03.2015 11:35

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 18 March

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 18 March, the next announcement date.
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04.03.2015 14:05

Tourism leads the recovery

The lion’s share of the GDP growth measured since the Icelandic economy began recovering in 2010 is due to the exponential growth of tourism. Íslandsbanki Research estimates that at least a third of GDP growth from 2010 to the present stems from this one sector.
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19.02.2015 14:02

MPC unanimous

According to the minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank’s (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), members voted unanimously to keep the policy rate unchanged on the CBI’s last interest rate decision date, 4 February.
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13.02.2015 14:34

CPI to rise 0.8% in February

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.8% month-on-month in February. If this forecast materialises, twelve-month inflation will rise from 0.8%, its nadir this century, to 0.9%.
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04.02.2015 14:47

Policy rate unchanged – against all expectations

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided today to keep the bank’s policy interest rate unchanged.
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30.01.2015 13:52

0.25% interest rate cut expected on 4 February

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to lower the CBI’s policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 4 February.
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16.01.2015 15:49

We forecast a 0.9% drop in the CPI in January

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall 0.9% month-on-month in January.
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11.12.2014 16:07

We forecast a 0.3% rise in the CPI in December

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in December.
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03.12.2014 15:06

We forecast a 25-point rate cut on 10 December

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to lower the CBI’s policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 10 December.
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14.11.2014 14:37

We forecast a 0.1% fall in the CPI in November

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall 0.1% month-on-month in November, lowering twelve-month inflation from 1.9% to 1.4% and making November the tenth consecutive month with inflation below the Central Bank’s (CBI) 2.5% inflation target.
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30.10.2014 13:36

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 5 November

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 5 November, the next announcement date.
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17.10.2014 11:50

We forecast an unchanged CPI in October

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will remain unchanged month-on-month in October. If this forecast materialises, twelve-month inflation will likewise remain unchanged, at 1.8%.
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16.10.2014 13:54

MPC: grounds for possible policy rate cut

According to the minutes from the 30 September meeting of the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), published yesterday, the MPC voted unanimously in favour of the Governor’s proposal to keep the policyrate unchanged.
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08.10.2014 13:17

Macroeconomic forecast: Robust growth ahead

With strong output growth in the past few years, the Icelandic economy has shaken off the lion’s share of the slack that developed after the 2008 collapse. The economy has been rebalanced, and both inflation and the exchange rate have been extraordinarily stable this year.
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18.09.2014 12:30

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 1 October

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 1 October, the next announcement date.
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12.09.2014 13:30

CPI to rise 0.2% in September

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% in September, lowering twelve-month inflation from 2.2% to 2.1%.
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15.08.2014 15:10

Our forecast: CPI to rise 0.3% in August

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% in August. If the forecast materialises, twelve-month inflation will taper off slightly, from 2.4% to 2.3%.
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14.08.2014 11:22

Unchanged policy rate on 20 August

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 20 August, the next announcement date.
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14.07.2014 11:33

We forecast a 0.2% decline in the CPI in July

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall 0.2% in July. If our forecast materialises, twelve-month inflation will rise marginally, from 2.2% to 2.3%.
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20.06.2014 14:40

Capital area house prices dip in May

After a rapid rise year-to-date, house prices in the greater Reykjavík area fell 0.1% month-on-month in May.
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16.06.2014 11:19

CPI expected to rise 0.2% in June

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% in June. If this forecast materialises, inflation will decline from 2.4% to 2.1%, as the CPI rose 0.5% in June 2013.
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11.06.2014 13:13

Unchanged interest rates in line with forecasts

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided again to keep the policy rate unchanged, in line with our forecast and others.
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06.06.2014 11:52

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 11 June

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 11 June, the next announcement date.
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21.05.2014 14:02

Next policy rate change will be an increase

The Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided today to keep the bank’s policy interest rate unchanged.
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19.05.2014 15:53

CPI expected to rise 0.2% in May

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.2% in May, bringing headline inflation from 2.3% to 2.6%, as the CPI fell by 0.05% in May 2013.
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12.05.2014 13:06

We forecast a rate cut on 21 May

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to lower the CBI’s policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for 21 May, bringing to a close the longest period of unchanged interest rates since the adoption of the inflation targeting regime.
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02.05.2014 15:49

Macroeconomic forecast for 2014 -2016

Islandsbanki Research has published a new macroeconomic forecast for 2014 -2016
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17.03.2014 14:22

CPI to rise 0.3% in March

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.3% month-on-month in March.
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13.03.2014 13:59

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 19 March

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged at its 19 March rate-setting meeting.
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14.02.2014 13:20

Inflation to go below inflation target in February

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will rise by 0.8% month-on-month in February.
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03.02.2014 11:13

Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on 12 February

We forecast that the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide to hold the policy rate unchanged at its 12 February rate-setting meeting.
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17.01.2014 11:01

We forecast a 0.4% drop in the CPI in January

We project that the consumer price index (CPI) will fall by 0.4% month-on-month in January. If this forecast materialises, inflation will decline from 4.2% to 3.5%.
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06.12.2013 14:00

We forecast an unchanged policy rate on 11 December

We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on 11 December, the next interest rate announcement date.
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16.10.2013 14:10

CPI projected to rise 0.3 in October

We expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in October.
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15.10.2013 16:04

Macroeconomic forecast

Íslandsbanki Research has issued a new macroeconomic forecast. We forecast that output growth in Iceland will measure 1.7% this year, which is slightly more than the 1.4% measured in 2012.
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